Thank you.
2 years ago
Was a lot better, I can tell you that. Second time this month I got caught by a Baggy Bagel. This time followed by a retirement. Overall a very disappointing day. Did a bad chase on Tsonga that could have turned out a lot worse, but also a lot better.
Before that, I had some nice green on Hantuchova and Li but went for another flipflop after the third set break and it didn't happen.
Before that, I had some nice green on Hantuchova and Li but went for another flipflop after the third set break and it didn't happen.
If there was ever something like a trader's dream then it was last night at the AusOpen. Of the 16 matches that were played only 1 wasn't very interesting. (Safina never got in trouble in her match.) But all the others... First of all the total off-day for Kim. Prematch 1.1, which was way too low to start off with. I was waiting for the first two games to get a feel for the match and then lay her but I never got a chance. Kim lost 9 games in a row and it was GSM from there.
JJ was pretty much the same story although she started around 1.44.
In practically all the other matches the player who eventually lost traded at pretty low odds. Bartoli 1.16, Fatanova 1.26, Kerber 1.55, Errani 1.7 (after Wickmayer had been 1.03).
Similar stuff on the men's side although slightly less spectacular, but every match very tradable, especially Isner vs Monfils.
As for myself, I did ok. As usual not as good as it could have been. :-) But I managed to get back into the green zone for the week.
JJ was pretty much the same story although she started around 1.44.
In practically all the other matches the player who eventually lost traded at pretty low odds. Bartoli 1.16, Fatanova 1.26, Kerber 1.55, Errani 1.7 (after Wickmayer had been 1.03).
Similar stuff on the men's side although slightly less spectacular, but every match very tradable, especially Isner vs Monfils.
As for myself, I did ok. As usual not as good as it could have been. :-) But I managed to get back into the green zone for the week.
What for Andy ? It wasn't like you were going to lose the match. I liked the 'fuck' on US TV though.
Later Andy tweets apologies. :-)
Later Andy tweets apologies. :-)
It could be that there's nothing wrong with the system and that it's just me being a mug. But let's just say that Blake a break up in the fifth at 1.77 wasn't bad odds. That is, if he had held his next service game. Nearly made up for the loss, on Tomic, but the kid was almost falling asleep on court when the match ended around 2.10am. Onwards and downwards...
Great day for the low odds layers. Five players who were 1.01 lost their matches and plenty of others lost from below 1.1. Sadly though, I didn't lay any of them. Why ? Hmmm, let's say my timing is still off. Must be the jetlag or something... But Fed could have been pretty good, laid Almugro at 1.09, Venus was better than expected (or Lucie worse), and then there's Gulbis... But I've said all I have to say about him in the previous post.
(The losing 1.01s were Soderling, Cibulkova, Ferrero, Oudin, Molik)
When you lay, timing is important. For example, it is not a good idea to lay someone at 1.07 right before he breaks and goes 1.03. Thank you for the lesson, Juan Martin. Apart from that, I can't remember another first day of a Grand Slam that wasn't coloured red, so...
Marcos Baghdatis in Sydney
Elena Dementieva in Sydney
Alona Bondarenko in Hobart
John Isner in Auckland
Been away for a couple of days. This is a result from last week. Ready for AusOpen now.
Reasonable uneventful night. I laid the eternally overestimated and underpriced Alexandra Wozniak when she was a break up in the first set against qualifier Kirsten Flipkens. Wozniak was an amazingly low 1.14 at that time. From there it was pretty much an easy two set win for the least known of the Belgian tennis women.
Later in the day I was made aware of a huge copyright infraction. A horse won the 13.30 in Southwell, which is nothing special of course, but the horse's name was Reverend Green. Since it won from odds of 16 I think it would be fair to demand 10% on all winnings from this race.
And if the owners don't agree I'll let them know that horse meat is a delicacy in Belgium...
Apart from doing your bank on a stupid bet...
What can I say ? BF's timing wasn't perfect, but what else would you expect.
Didn't get a chance to do much last night as I had to get up early in the morning but at least what I did was succesful. JJ was struggling throughout the first set of her match against Agnes Szavay but still she was 1.14 after she won that set. That was ridiculously low for someone who was playing her first match of the season. I tried to lay for a liability of €50 but wasn't completely matched due to an annoying lack of liquidity. Not unsatisfied with the result, but in a match with 17 breaks in 31 games there is obviously a chance to do better.
So that concludes the first week and it hasn't been a particularly successful one. I've been checking some stats and it seems that this wasn't a veruy good week for layers, with a very high percentage of favorites winning and an exceptionally low count of three set matches (Except in Brisbane, a tournament I followed mostly from my bed, asleep.)
So, for now, I'll just put the loss this week to bad luck. Better luck in Sydney, Hobart and Auckland...
So, for now, I'll just put the loss this week to bad luck. Better luck in Sydney, Hobart and Auckland...
Nicolay Davydenko in Qatar
Kim Clijsters in Brisbane
Andy Roddick in Brisbane
Yanina Wickmayer in Auckland
Wow. It's rare that you get two finals with world class players on one day, that are as exciting as the ones we've seen today. First Clijsters vs. Henin, with Kim matched at 1.01 before being matchpoints down and still winning. Then almost the same scenario in the Nadal vs. Davydenko final in Qatar. Rafa had matchpoints in the second set TB, was a break up in the third but Davy still won it.
And so did I. First good day of the year. About fuckin time too.
The Tennis Integrity Unit has fined the Russian Ekaterina Bychkova $5,000 and barred her from playing for 30 days for failing to report that she was asked to provide inside information and throw matches.
An anti-corruption hearing officer said there was no evidence the 24-year-old Bychkova, who is ranked 121st, accepted any compensation.
So after suspending Wickmayer and Malisse for not failing a doping test, they now ban Bychkova for not fixing.
It's
Kim vs. Justine
Komaan vs. Allez
Flanders vs. Wallonia
Komaan vs. Allez
Flanders vs. Wallonia
Telenet vs. Belgacom
Outgoing vs. Ingrowing
Lost my Dad vs. Lost my Mom
I won the US Open while you were away vs. I won all the others while you were still playing
It's BELGIUM
Or as the Prime Minister of Belgium would sing: "Alons enfants de la patrie... Le jour de gloire est arrivé". Even though that's the French national anthem and not the Belgian one.
This isn't a joke. A band called 'Rogue Traders' will play a concert before the start of the AusOpen Men's Final. The joke would be complete if Davydenko made the final now.
Blah. Reechard twice a MB up in the second set TB, Roger going down fast. And me following him. Blah.
"I know that Gulbis is the player with the most potential right now," Federer said. "Unfortunately, he doesn't have the ranking he deserves. I took him very seriously. I wasn't surprised by how he played."
WTA -Corporate Headquarters
One Progress Plaza
Suite 1500
St. Petersburg, FL 33701
USA
Phone: +1.727.895.5000
Fax: +1.727.894.1982
Has anyone seen her ? Because she should be playing a WTA Final in Auckland tonight. Kim and Justine are present in Brisbane, Yanina is waiting in Auckland, but Kirsten, the 2003 Wimbledon and US Open Girl's Champion, just didn't show up.
I don't do many outright bets but it's often fun going into a Grand Slam with some money on an outsider who could do well. The Australian Open often has surprise finalists (Baghdatis, González, Tsonga) so I put €10 @480 on this year's surprise package: Ernests Gulbis, who took a set off Federer today.
Now watch him go out against a qualifier in the first round.
I didn't do much today. Spent the day at my girlfriend's. I still managed to lose a bet on the Aussie markets, though.
Laid Wickmayer, 1.19. Could have gone out when she was breakpoint down, but the price at BP was lower than at SP, and probably rightly so, judging by the end result. Another Belgian was so nice not to lose either, although she tried. Belgian women... tssss.
p.s. my girlfriend's Belgian and she's really, really nice. (Just in case she reads this...)
If I'm not mistaken the original film played in India and that's where the first big loss of the season comes from... The remake featured me totally messing up the Cilic match, me not sticking to my plan and as per usual me not being very lucky.
I backed Granollers (otherwise known as the Temple of Doom) at 1.46 a set and a break up, when he hadn't been broken once in a set and a half, and had faced just one breakpoint. When the match was over he had been broken 5 times and I was feeling like somebody had spooned my brain. Nice going, Marcel.
Dr. Ivo saved the day somewhat, but I see it more as a missed opportunity. Oh well...
In the Aussie markets, Baggy was ready for the bin and Caravane Rezai just didn't want the second set.
I backed Granollers (otherwise known as the Temple of Doom) at 1.46 a set and a break up, when he hadn't been broken once in a set and a half, and had faced just one breakpoint. When the match was over he had been broken 5 times and I was feeling like somebody had spooned my brain. Nice going, Marcel.
Dr. Ivo saved the day somewhat, but I see it more as a missed opportunity. Oh well...
In the Aussie markets, Baggy was ready for the bin and Caravane Rezai just didn't want the second set.
The poor guy is going cold turkey. Very nice of Nole and Dr. Ivo to do this.
Well, one thing was always for sure: this laying thing isn't gonna work if all the favorites just win their matches, even if they go to a third set, god knows they didn't do that in the days when I still backed them. And if on top of that you miss the one big surprise of the day... Yes, YOU Sod ! Why didn't you tell me you were gonna tank. Or are you telling me that Ginepri just beat you in two ?
Not even Ana obliged to lose a third set from 1.09...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
